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New Yorkers will find out who will be their new city leader this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who governs and defends the country's largest city at a time when Donald Trump has threatened to deploy military troops to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has matched two very different Democratic figures against each other. The contest has turned into an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by accusations of racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two main candidates that could have major implications for how the party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has attracted global notice. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the backing of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat Cuomo in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has run on a agenda of economic justice and pledged to freeze rent for about 2 million New Yorkers, has outpaced his rival by double-digits in every poll conducted in October, and it is very much the progressive's race to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

However, the former governor, who resigned as the state's leader in 2021 amid accusations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has criticized his opponent's objectives as unrealistic, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was strongly criticized as bigoted after sharing an AI-generated ad that included a series of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani releasing a convicts.

It's been a particularly ugly conclusion to an race that could be key to the path that the Democratic party, floundering in its reaction to Trump's authoritarian grabs, takes in the coming years.

National Implications

Should the progressive wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his bid will be forced to reckon with a message that has appealed to Americans' frustration at economic disparity, inflation and the establishment. It would be hard for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has generated an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks perhaps not seen since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

However, if the former governor, who had been expected to win easily in the June primary, achieve a remarkable comeback victory, it could reinforce national Democrats' current model of cautious, lackluster opposition – a tactic that has infuriated grassroots members. A New York rejection of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to remain in the political center – even as surveys show the present version of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of New York appear to favor the progressive agenda. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident during the race. Mamdani's engaging content on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for the city and his readiness to actually venture out and meet people in the metropolis has attracted an force of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them young or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

However, Cuomo, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the stakes against him, the former governor has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might resonate, the independent has narrowed his focus on attacking Mamdani personally. He has labelled his rival, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an "radical", and appeared on Fox Business for an discussion with a rightwing host, where Cuomo asserted New York “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It reached a nadir last week, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

The line of attack echoes much of what the former president, who has sent the national guard to Washington DC and warned to do the same to New York, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to the Republican in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to elect the independent elected, as other powerful voices have pressured the Republican candidate to withdraw from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should never have come to this. When the assemblyman, one of 150 New York state assembly members, launched his campaign for mayor in October 2024, not many had heard of him, and in reality, few even noticed.

The former governor, by contrast, eased his way into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who seemingly held every edge. The classic political insider, he had married a political dynasty member and served in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as the state's leader in 2011, 17 years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the state legislature in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the future than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, Mamdani has encountered some challenges in the final phase, after video surfaced suggesting him suggesting the NYPD and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the clip, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the country is committing genocide in Gaza, indicated he was criticizing cooperative programs between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, the candidate seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

The progressive responded to the independent's 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could express their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our faith.”

Speaking to the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd