Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Each authors two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will prevail here and the other side will in the end lose but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
