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"I'll be sitting in the same seat by 2027," Sir Keir Starmer declared, noting that if the discussion proceeded smoothly, he might welcome the interviewer into Number 10 for another chat in the coming year.

There is never any downtime for prime ministers. In the hour before we sat down, Starmer had been speaking with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and working to decipher exactly what had transpired in Venezuela, where his big friend, US President Donald Trump, had recently attacked and captured its leader, Nicolás Maduro.

By the time the discussion, which was considerably lengthier than usual, had finished, Maduro had been formally accused in New York.

Renewed Energy for the New Year

But as the year commences, the Prime Minister appears to have had a kind of a refresh. Maybe even just a bit of a rest with his family at Chequers, the prime minister's country retreat.

That certainly appeared to have put him in improved morale than at the sluggish end of 2025, a awful political year for him.

But are he and his allies deluding themselves if they reckon his fortunes are poised to improve?

Leadership Questions

The harsh reality for the PM is that numerous of his party members believe he's not very good at his job. Some of them would sooner take a risk and get him out in 2026.

However Starmer was rejecting the idea in the interview on Saturday morning.

Multiple times he told me he'd be "assessed at the poll", maintaining nobody would strip his term from him – despite the fact that the optimal path of stopping Nigel Farage and Reform UK getting to No 10 might be for Labour to replace leader.

"We are in the struggle of our generation and I intend to be at the forefront," he affirmed.

The May Elections

The challenge for the PM is that he will be scrutinised long before then – in a mega set of elections in May across the UK. He sought to protest, perhaps too much, that they are concerning who runs councils, and who runs the devolved administrations in Holyrood or Cardiff – and unrelated to Westminster.

Accurate – up to a point. But although he may be reluctant to acknowledge it, No 10 will be held accountable by those elections too.

Despite this, Sir Keir implying that there were no circumstances under which he would walk away, even if one of his MPs ran against him for the job, if those elections be very poor for Labour.

An Optimistic Outlook

He attempted to explain his unpopularity by saying the voters was naturally anxious for things to improve. He sought to convince the interviewer, and the public, that this year would be a change.

The economy would recover despite rising unemployment, he argued, when plans the administration enacted during their initial rocky year began to take effect.

• He committed to empty asylum hotels before the current target date of 2029, but he wouldn't set a specific date on that.
• He noted too, with the proviso that it wasn't a done deal, that a peace deal in Ukraine felt closer now than at any point since Russia's major invasion.
• He disclosed for the first occasion that Western partners were now discussing how to coordinate US and European forces to provide security for Ukraine – to safeguard a potential peace.

His big point is that in 2026 the country will "reach a turning point".

Familiar Arguments

The PM may have spoken with more energy than I've seen from him for a some time – calmer, maybe, with a longer slot to talk.

However, in spite of encountering calls from within his own party for a more decisive approach, with increased political vision, more vigour, more speed and more urgency, his points were repeated ones.

Given that he is in this much political peril, is a different approach required a new narrative?

No administration, and especially not one that has been unpopular for an extended period, has everything its own way.

The Prime Minister's problems are not only because government is challenging, but because he and his team have made mistakes, even in the last few weeks.

Controversies and Dangers

The PM told me that he was sorry for saying he was "delighted" to welcome back the Egyptian-British activist Alaa Abd El Fattah to the UK following an backlash when past remarks he'd previously made – such as calls for Zionists and police to be killed – resurfaced.

Sir Keir attributed it to "procedures" for not catching what the activist had said before – a fancier way of saying it wasn't his responsibility.

And he is courting obvious political risks as the year gets going. His friendship with the US president acquires a new complication after Trump's strikes on Venezuela.

Having interviewed Sir Keir Starmer, a former human rights lawyer who opposed the war in Iraq, over a long period, the thought he would be at ease with these events seems unlikely.

International Law and Brexit

He told me he was a "lifelong proponent of international law" but the public "simply haven't got the full picture at the moment".

Critics wanted him to criticise the action prior to we spoke. And the government is likely to face increased demands to give an definitive view in Parliament in the coming days.

And there has long been growing tension in the Labour party to revisit some of the outcomes of Brexit.

The PM denies he's heading in that direction, but his new specific commitment to move closer with the EU's single market – the giant economic European market – will probably elicit howls that he is going back on his pledge never to try to undo the results that stemmed from Brexit.

A decision to align with more of the single market will delight some on his side of the party, but it is simple material for Reform and the Conservatives to